Oct. 12, 2005 - As if they didn’t have their hands full with Iraq and terrorism, U.S. intelligence agencies are being drawn into the debate over whether the United States is imminently threatened by a deadly outbreak of bird influenza and whether the Bush administration has adequately prepared for such an epidemic.

Over the last two weeks, the administration has held bird flu briefings classified “Top Secret/Sensitive Compartmented Information” for members of both houses of Congress, according to intelligence and congressional officials. A counterterrorism official indicated that the intelligence community is also studying whether it would be possible for terrorists to somehow exploit the avian flu virus and use it against the United States, though there is no evidence that terrorists have in any way tried to do so.

The intelligence community also recently distributed inside the government an illustrated booklet, “Avian Influenza and the Threat of Pandemic Influenza,” marked “Unclassified/For Official Use Only” that highlights the dangers of a global outbreak. The booklet, a copy of which was obtained by NEWSWEEK, cites unidentified "experts” who believe that H5N1, a bird flu strain now circulating in Asia, could spread around the world as a pandemic and cause mass fatalities. (Scientists define a pandemic as a disease for which there is no certain treatment and to which humans have no natural immunity.)

According to the intelligence document, the World Health Organization is warning that if a pandemic outbreak occurs, “as much as one-fifth of the world’s population could become ill, at least 30 million people worldwide could require hospitalization, and at least 2 million people could die.” According to the booklet, however, other experts “warn that far more could die, with some estimates as high as 180 million” in the event that a new pandemic virus is as potent as the “Spanish flu” virus which caused massive casualties in 1918.

Most scientists say the likelihood of casualties on this scale is small. But alarming figures like these in recent weeks caught the attention of President George W. Bush and other White House aides. The White House is anxious to ensure that the administration won’t be blindsided by what has been portrayed as a potential “bio-Katrina,” according to one administration consultant who asked not to be identified because of the sensitivity of the subject.

Three Capitol Hill officials familiar with the contents of the top-secret briefings, which were open to congressional leaders of both parties as well as senior staffers with appropriate security clearances, said there was little if any information imparted during the sessions that had not already appeared in the press. Two officials indicated that the secrets in the briefing related to intelligence raising questions about the thoroughness with which foreign governments were monitoring and disclosing information about the spread of bird flu in their countries.