Civilian casualities in Iraq were at their lowest level this May since the U.S. invaded more than six years ago. But the Washington Post’s Greg Jaffe reports that the trend changed last month: the number of Iraqi civilians killed doubled from May to June to 447 — a spike in violence that coincided with U.S. troop withdrawal from Iraqi cities.

Jaffe quotes U.S. military leaders who pooh-pooh the rise in violence. Ray Odierno, the top commander in Iraq, says sectarian extremists like Al Qaeda in Iraq are on the run — and the June violence represents a weak attempt to raise concern about the competence of Iraq Security Forces. Let’s hope he’s right. But a failure by the Iraq Security Forces to contain insurgent violence might force the U.S. to return to Iraqi cities. That would be deeply unpopular among both Iraqis and Americans.-MB

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