The New York Times’ Peter Baker and Elisabeth Bumiller report that Defense Sec. Robert Gates has warmed to U.S. Commander in Afghanistan Stanley McChrystal’s push for more troops. But how many more?
Although General McChrystal included no specific force proposals in his review, officials expect him to send a separate request in the coming weeks. Military strategists, including one who has advised General McChrystal, said he might offer three options. The smallest proposed reinforcement, from 10,000 to 15,000 troops, would be described as the high-risk option. A medium-risk option would involve sending about 25,000 more troops, and a low-risk option would call for sending about 45,000 troops.
Geoff Morrell, the Pentagon press secretary, cautioned that talk about troop levels was speculation. “Anyone who tells you that they know how many troops the commander is going to ask for and the options he may or may not present doesn’t know what he’s talking about, because that has not been determined yet,” Mr. Morrell said. He said that Mr. Gates had not made up his mind about what he would recommend to the president.
Mr. Gates could be the key adviser on this decision, and some military analysts predicted that he might recommend what Pentagon officials call the “Goldilocks option” — the medium-risk one in the middle. Because he was first appointed by President George W. Bush, Mr. Gates could provide political cover for Mr. Obama should the president reject the biggest possible buildup.
To assume the Goldilocks option, that’s 25,000 more troops on top of the 21,000 troop escalation the military will complete this fall. It defies common sense to push for another troop escalation before you’ve seen what the first, yet to be implemented, troop escalation will accomplish. And if this 21,000 troop increase is discredited before it’s happened, that doesn’t speak well about the consistency and purpose of the Obama administration’s long-term war strategy.
But even if A.) everything changed when McChrystal took charge and B.) McChrystal might have a point and Gates is wise to listen to him, the Goldilocks options creates a situation where U.S. troops are spread absurdly thin. There are still 130,000 soldiers in Iraq and now, again with the assumed Goldilocks options, there will be 93,000 troops in Afghanistan. That’s equal in size to any combined Afghanistan-Iraq troop deployment in the Bush administration. The national security objectives are not apparent enough to force the same 200,000 or so soldiers to endlessly deploy and re-deploy: these dual wars have gone on a combined 14 years now. The scenario envisioned by the Onion in March is coming true: “U.S. Troops In Iraq Excited to Finally Return to Afghanistan.”-MB